It’s a chilling projection. Hiroshi Yoshida, a distinguished professor at Tohoku University’s Elderly Economy and Society Research Center, estimates that by 2720, there will be only one Japanese child under the age of 14 left. In other words, the Japanese people would soon be on the verge of extinction.
An alarming decline
This is not the first time that the researcher has made such a prediction. Last year, he predicted that all Japanese would have the surname Sato in 2531. In question, the obligation for nationals of the country to have the same surname when they are married: Japan is the only State to apply such a measure.
“ If everyone becomes Sato, you might have to address us by our first names or by numbers. I don’t think you can say that it’s a good world to live in. “, he declared then.
To achieve this new result, Hiroshi Yoshida relied on monthly data published by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. Its online counter reveals a worrying drop in the number of children in the country, with a drop of 2.3% observed in April 2024. This has considerably accelerated the demographic disaster scenario; it is so large that it advances previous 2023 estimates of the potential extinction of the Japanese population by 100 years.
In 2023, only 727,277 births were recorded in the country. The fertility rate thus fell to 1.2 children per woman, its lowest level since 1947, the date of the first official records. At the same time, the number of deaths reached an unprecedented high of 1,575,936, more than double. The population therefore decreased by 848,659 people in a single year..
The government is trying to find solutions
“ In Japan, where the recession has continued for a long time, the number of young people who cannot marry or give birth to a child due to low income has increased “, explains Professor Yoshida. “ If the decline in the number of births does not stop, the clock hand will move backwards. Japan could become the first country to disappear due to a low birth rate. We should create an environment where women and older people can work, and aim for a society where everyone is actively involved”he recommends.
Faced with this demographic decline and the rapid aging ofhe population, which increased from a peak of 128 million in 2008 to 123.7 million todaythe Japanese government is increasing its initiatives. On the agenda: encouragement of romantic encounters and marriage, better balance between professional and personal life, reduction of childcare costs and promotion of gender equality. But the results of these measures are still difficult to be felt.
- A Japanese scientist predicts that there will be only one Japanese child under the age of 14 in 695 years.
- For several years, experts have been sounding the alarm about the potential extinction of the Japanese.
- The country is increasing initiatives to boost births. They are, for the moment, in vain.
