The year 2024 is coming to inscribe its thermal footprint in the annals of our planetary history ; climate records collected by international organizations all converge towards this conclusion. Crossing the symbolic threshold of 1.5°C marks our planet’s entry into a new era: that of unbridled warming where extreme events will become the norm and ecosystems will be pushed to their limits.
We will probably leave a deep wound to future generations, which will be marked by shaky food security, threatened access to water, and uncontrollable population movements.
A dizzying thermal escalation
Measurements by the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) reveal an increase of 1.6° C compared to pre-industrial temperatures. This increase exceeds by 0.17° C the previous record established in 2023, itself already remarkable in the history of climate records.
Unanimity of data underlined by Dr. Carlo Buontempo, doctor in physics and director of C3S: “ All international databases on global temperatures confirm that 2024 was the hottest year since measurements began in 1850 “.
The last decade concentrates the ten hottest years on record, drawing an ascending curve whose slope gradually steepens. This thermal acceleration is the sign of a structural modification of our climate system, whose effects are already manifesting themselves on a global scale. Heat waves, extreme precipitation, repeated droughts, increased hurricanes and cyclones, loss of biodiversity, etc.
Climate disruption: a story of natural phenomena and anthropogenic influence
The year 2024 was sadly distinguished by an exceptional conjugation; in the first sense of the term; climatic phenomena. At the forefront of this dynamic, the El Niño phenomenon reconfigures ocean currents in the tropical Pacific. This natural oscillation, characterized by an accumulation of warm water on the surface, generates considerable heat transfer between the ocean and the atmosphere. The water masses, whose temperatures can exceed seasonal averages by several degrees, then gradually release their thermal energy, causing a cascade of modifications in the global atmospheric circuits.
But Man remains the main culprit. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is giving us a real slap in the face: the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide has crossed the historic threshold of 420 ppm in 2023. This means that in one million molecules of air, there are on average 420 molecules of carbon dioxide. This value, which represents an increase of 50% compared to the 280 ppm of the pre-industrial era, explains the extent of atmospheric transformations induced by human activities.
The physical mechanism at work is indisputable : these additional CO molecules2 amplify the natural greenhouse effect, trapping an increasing fraction of terrestrial infrared radiation and thus modifying the planetary thermal balance. Samantha Burgess, strategic climate manager at the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, explains: “ We are now hovering on the verge of exceeding the 1.5°C level defined in the Paris Agreement, and the average of the last two years already exceeds this threshold “. A very strong signal of the urgency of the situation.
La Niña will not save us from warming
The expected emergence of La Niña introduces another variable into this burning equation. This oceanic phenomenon, marked by a resurgence of deep, cold waters in the equatorial Pacific, usually generates a moderating effect on global temperatures. However, the British Met Office models do not point towards this scenario: even under the influence of this natural cooling, 2025 should rank among the three hottest years in modern history.
A rather terrible, paradoxical projection commented by Adam Scaife of the Met Office: “ In 2016, driven by El Niño, the planet experienced its hottest year on record. Yet compared to our forecasts for 2025, this year now seems almost fresh “.
We are heading straight into the wall, let’s not beat around the bush, but deviating our trajectory is still within the realm of possibility, even if the chances are slim. The democratization of renewable energies is a sign that a transition remains possible: solar energy has seen its costs decrease by 85% since 2010, while offshore wind power has multiplied its capacity sevenfold over the same period. A very small consolation, since this energetic metamorphosis violently clashes with a stubborn reality. The growth in global energy demand, which is increasing by 2% per year on average.
We are today, more than ever, faced with a terrible dilemma : are we going to continue to favor economic growth based on ever-increasing energy consumption, at the risk of compromising our future ? Or will we opt for a more sober and more sustainable development model, focusing on energy efficiency and drastically reducing our greenhouse gas emissions? The dominant economic model, fossil fuel lobbies and the inertia of political systems already seem to give us a rough answer and it is, for the moment, not going in the right direction. How long will we continue to procrastinate?
- The year 2024 marks an alarming new peak in global warming, crossing critical thresholds.
- Human activities, amplified by natural phenomena, are accelerating a climate crisis already visible on a global scale.
- Despite progress in renewable energies, global energy growth seriously jeopardizes a possible sustainable transition.
