The start of 2025 has an unpleasant surprise in store for French drivers. Surveys carried out by the Ministry of Ecological Transition between January 13 and 19 confirm a worrying trend: fuel prices are rising inexorably. This increase, which results in an increase of 6 cents for diesel and 3 cents for gasoline since the start of the yearweighs heavily on household budgets. For a full 35 liters of diesel, the additional cost already reaches 2.10 euros.
A perfect storm of economic and geopolitical factors
The euro is currently going through a difficult period against the dollar, the reference currency for oil trade. This situation directly affects the price of a barrel of Brent, the gold standard for oil financial markets. Since January, its price has increased from 71.7 to 78.6 euros, an increase which has a direct impact on prices at the pump.
The geopolitical context amplifies this tension. The UK and US have recently toughened their stance on illegal Russian oil imports. Francis Pousse, president of fuel distributors at Mobilians, confirms this increased vigilance: “ These two countries have clearly shown their desire to strengthen controls on these supplies “. This reinforced surveillance contributes to reducing the supply available on the global market.
Diesel particularly affected by seasonal effects
The price rise hits diesel harder, for reasons that go beyond the simple logic of the oil markets. Winter plays a crucial role in this dynamic. Since mid-December, the drop in temperatures has caused a significant increase in demand for heating oil. However, fuel oil and diesel share the same refining base.
This competition between heating and fuel needs creates additional pressure on diesel prices. The usual gap with gasoline has narrowed considerably, going from more than 10 cents at the end of October to just 5 cents today. Francis Pousse, however, is optimistic for the months to come: “ The return of spring should allow us to find more usual differences between gasoline and diesel. »
The horizon remains uncertain for motorists. The arrival of Donald Trump as President of the United States could reshuffle the cards of the global oil market. His program provides for a massive revival of American oil exploitation, a policy which could lower world prices. The global economic slowdown, particularly marked in China, also suggests a possible moderation of energy demand.
However, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) keeps its hands on the valves of global production. Its future decisions regarding production quotas will have a decisive impact on price developments.
- Fuel prices are reaching new heights with diesel at €1.72 and SP95-E10 at €1.77
- The weakness of the euro, geopolitical tensions and winter demand for fuel oil explain this increase
- Spring and global economic slowdown could bring some respite, but OPEC keeps the last word
